Over the past four seasons the Tampa Bay Rays have gone from being the doormat of the AL East to one of the most successful franchises in baseball. Since 2008, the Rays have three playoff appearances, two AL East titles and represented the American League in the 2008 World Series.
One of the key components of the Rays success has been their ability to develop talent from within the organization. Whether the players are drafted or acquired through a trade, the Rays have excelled at grooming young talent in their system. During the past four seasons the Rays have had significant contributions by home grown talent at every position on the field, except one.
The Rays minor league system has been unable to develop a quality, Major League ready first baseman. However, over the past five years, they have enjoyed reliable (and sometimes exceptional) offensive and defensive production from the position.
Carlos Pena was signed to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training before the 2007 season. Pena made the most of his opportunity with the Rays and became a fixture at first base from 2007-2010. During his tenure with the Rays he hit 144 home runs and accumulated 407 RBIs. Pena left the Rays via free agency after the 2010 season and signed with the Chicago Cubs.
After Pena’s departure the Rays were left with a hole at first base. Early in the season they turned to Dan Johnson(notes), but he struggled to produce during the first month of the 2011 season.
Johnson’s struggles cleared the way for Casey Kotchman(notes) to have a shot at the everyday first base job. Kotchman (once a top prospect for the Los Angeles Angels) played for four different teams from 2008-2010 and his production declined with each stop. After a miserable 2010 season with the Seattle Mariners, the Rays were able to sign Kotchman to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training before the 2011 season.
Just like Carlos Pena did before him, Kotchman made the most of his opportunity with the Rays. He experienced a career revival in 2011 by hitting .306 with 10 home runs and 48 RBIs. Unfortunately, for the Rays, Kotchman was only signed to a one-year contract and he became a free agent after the 2011 season.
So once again, the Rays are left with a hole to fill at first base and they don’t have many viable options within their organization to fill the void. Let’s take a look at five potential options, outside of the Tampa Bay organization, that could man first base for the Rays in 2012.
Casey Kotchman
If it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it. The Rays won 91 games with Kotchman at first in 2011.
On the plus side, he’s an excellent defensive first baseman and that fits well with the Rays philosophy of winning with pitching and defense. He also led the team in hitting with a .306 average.
On the negative side, he lacks the power you would ideally like to see from a corner infielder. His .306 average was the highest of his career and he’ll most likely revert to his career average of .270-.280 in 2012. Also, after the success he had in 2011, he’ll be looking for a multi-year contract and his price may be too high for the Rays, especially since he has limited upside potential.
Carlos Pena
Pena is once again a free agent after completing his one-year, $10 million contract with the Cubs in 2011.
Pena was always a fan favorite with the Rays and re-signing him would excite a fan base that struggles to support the Rays at Tropicana Field. He’s a known commodity. He plays excellent defense and has the power you look for in a corner infielder.
On the down side, Pena strikes out a lot and he’ll never hit for a great average. His numbers were solid with the Cubs in 2011. He hit .225 with 28 home runs and 80 RBIs. He would bring some much needed explosiveness to the Rays pedestrian offense and could provide Evan Longoria(notes) with some protection in the line-up.
There’s no doubt the Rays would love to have Pena back, but the price tag will be an issue. The Rays won’t pay $10 million for a free agent first baseman. The Rays would need to sell Pena on the idea of playing for less money to have a shot at contending for a World Series ring, while playing close to home (he lives in Orlando).
Yonder Alonso(notes)
Alonso was once the top prospect in the Cincinnati Reds organization, but his status has slipped some over the past couple seasons. He’s currently ranked as the third best prospect in the Red’s system.
The Red’s tried to convert Alonso to left field (since they already have a superstar first baseman in Joey Votto(notes)), but his natural position is first base. However, even at his best, he is considered an average fielder.
Alonso has shown some ability at the plate. In 117 career Major League at-bats he’s hit .299 with 5 home runs and 18 RBIs. During his three years in the minors he posted a .293 average with 36 home runs and 179 RBIs in 1179 at-bats.
Recently, there have been rumors that the Red’s would be willing to deal Alonso if the right offer came along. He would fit in with the Rays strategy of pursuing young players, with some upside potential, who have a low price tag. He wouldn’t be eligible to arbitration until 2015 and wouldn’t be a free agent until 2018.
The Rays currently have eight Major League ready starting pitchers in their organization, so they could be in the market for an Alonso trade, but the asking price would determine the level of interest from the Rays. The Rays won’t deal any of their top four starters (Shields, Hellickson, Price or Moore) straight up for Alonso, but if a deal is built around Wade Davis(notes), Jeff Neimann, Alex Cobb(notes) or Alex Torres(notes), the Rays might listen.
Logan Morrison(notes)
Logan Morrison played left field for the Marlins in 2011, but he’s more suited for first base. At best, he’s an average defender. However, he does have some pop. In 2011 he appeared in 123 games and hit .247 with 23 home runs and 72 RBIs.
Morrison had attitude issues while playing for the Marlins. He was briefly demoted to the minors during the 2011 season after clashing with management.
On the downside, his limited defense and potential attitude concerns don’t fit into the Rays standard philosophy.
On the plus side, he’s young, cheap and has some offensive potential. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2014 and would remain under team control until 2017. Those factors do fit into the budget conscious Rays philosophy.
One of the first trade rumors this offseason involved the Rays trading James Shields(notes) to the Marlins for Logan Morrison. That trade is extremely unlikely. Shields current value vastly outweighs Morrison’s. Once again, the Rays won’t part with their top four starting pitchers to obtain Morrison, but if a deal is built around one of the other four, the Rays might be interested.
Justin Smoak(notes)
Rumor has it that the Seattle Mariners may be pursuing free agent first baseman Prince Fielder(notes). If the Mariners do sign Fielder then they may deal incumbent first baseman Justin Smoak.
Smoak was once a top prospect of the Texas Rangers, but he was dealt to the Mariners as part of the Cliff Lee(notes) deal in 2010. Smoak was the everyday first baseman for the Mariners in 2011. He hit .234 with 15 home runs and 55 RBIs.
On the plus side, Smoak is a switch hitting first baseman that still hasn’t reached his offensive potential. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2014 and will remain under team control until 2017.
On the down side, he’s a below average defender. In 223 games during the 2010 and 2011 seasons, he’s posted a dWAR (defensive wins above replacement) of -0.1.
If Smoak becomes available and the Mariners are willing to trade for one of the Rays lower end pitching prospects (think Alex Torres), then the Rays may be interested in trading for the switch hitting first baseman.
The Rays front office is always creative when addressing holes in their roster. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pursue an option nobody saw coming. Only time will tell who the Rays run out there as their starting first baseman in 2012.
Sean McDonnell has been a resident of the Tampa Bay area for the past 21 years. He is an avid fan of the Tampa Bay Rays; Tampa Bay Bucs and USF Bulls.
*statistics provided by Yahoo sports
Sources:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoakju01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrilo01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alonsyo01.shtml
Additional articles from this author:
Rays Trade John Jaso to Mariners for Josh Lueke: A Fan’s Take
Is Jose Molina a Good Fit for the Rays?: A Fan’s Take
Should the Rays Trade for Joey Votto: A Fan’s Take
Should the Rays Trade James Shields for Logan Morrison?: A Fan’s Review
How the Rays Can Increase Attendance: A Fan’s Take
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That’s all for today.